
Dear clients and friends,
Today, the new Law on Tourist Use of Housing in the Canary Islands will be published. As expected, many of you have contacted me with concerns about the future of the real estate market in southern Tenerife, especially regarding price developments.
Will prices drop?
After nearly two decades in the real estate sector and having experienced various market cycles, I want to share my forecast: prices of correctly valued properties will NOT drop. But there WILL be a correction for overvalued properties. Let me explain why:
1. Money loses its purchasing power. The value of money decreases year after year. 1 million euros now is not 1 million euros from 2024. This is a fundamental economic fact that many forget when anticipating price drops.
2. Construction costs continue to rise. Construction prices continue to increase, driven by rising material costs, labor costs, and the shortage of qualified personnel. Now building a new home is more expensive than buying a used one.
3. Scarce land supply. South of Tenerife remains an island with limited urban land. The supply of buildable land does not increase, while demand remains strong and prices per m² of urban land have doubled.
4. We WILL see a correction in artificially inflated prices. Currently, there are many properties overvalued by 20%. This “artificial” markup was generated more by owners’ wishes than by market reality. So, there will be a 15-20% price correction, which is necessary and healthy and will separate the wheat from the chaff. For example, a studio in Borinquen in Las Americas now offered for €240,000 will return to costing €190,000 (which is its real price). A villa in El Madronal advertised for €3,000,000 will cost €2,400,000 (which is its real price).
Will sales drop?
Certainly, south of Tenerife will lose its appeal as “a vacation investment.” But the approval of the new law does NOT mean that sales will drop. Let me explain:
The concept of “vacation rental investment” in Tenerife is relatively new. It didn’t exist about 6-7 years ago. What did we, estate agents, do before 2017-2018? We never sold “pure and solid investment." We sold “a house for your family vacations,” “a place under the sun” where the weather is always good, "an option to park your money " – a tangible way to preserve wealth. The new law simply returns us to that model. We need to change our mindset and narrative. Tenerife’s sun will continue to shine, the beaches will remain magnificent, and the quality of life will continue to attract buyers.
Despite the uncertainty in the first part of the year caused by the new Law, sales have shown only a slight decrease. I attach the PDF with official sales data from the Ministry of Development in the 5 municipalities where Asten Realty® operates.
Lessons from other markets in Spain.
We have seen similar situations in other Spanish destinations that give us valuable clues:
Barcelona implemented severe restrictions on vacation rentals since 2016 and announced the total elimination of tourist licenses by 2028. Result? Real estate prices did not collapse. In fact, the market adapted: many owners simply switched to long-term rentals or seasonal rentals, and buyers kept coming attracted by the city itself.
Mallorca suspended new vacation licenses in 2022. Properties WITH existing licenses significantly increased in value, becoming a scarce asset. And most revealing: the general real estate market remained firm because demand for second homes and primary residences does not depend on rentals.
In both cases, the lesson was clear: restrictions on vacation rentals did not bring down real estate markets because property demand has multiple motivations, not just profitability from tourist rentals.
What does this mean for you?
If you’re thinking of buying: This could be a good time. Inflated prices will correct, but real prices will hold. Look for correctly valued properties and think long-term.
If you’re an owner: Don’t panic. Your property remains a valuable asset in a prime location. If you had a vacation license and were thinking about tourist rentals, consider other options: long-term rental, personal use, or simply maintaining it as a wealth investment.
If you’re selling: Be realistic with the price. The market will reward correctly valued properties and harshly penalize overvalued ones.
Conclusion.
This Housing Law represents a change, not a catastrophe. Markets adapt, we professionals adapt, and south Tenerife will continue to be one of Europe’s most desired destinations. People will continue to buy in Tenerife for the sun, for the lifestyle, for the security, for the international community, and yes, also as a way to preserve wealth against inflation.
As always, myself and the 41 real estate experts at Asten Realty® are at your disposal to analyze any particular situation and help you make the best decisions for your interests.
Kind regards,
Anton Sorokko